What is the term for the belief that two unrelated events are connected, such as bad behavior during a full moon?

The term that describes the belief that two unrelated events are connected, such as the notion that bad behavior increases during a full moon, is illusory correlation. This concept refers to the perception of a relationship where none exists, leading individuals to see patterns or associations between events that are actually statistically unrelated.

Illusory correlations often occur due to cognitive biases where individuals give undue weight to specific instances or anecdotes while disregarding contrary evidence. For instance, if someone observes erratic behavior on a full moon, they might remember this connection while forgetting instances when no such behavior was observed during other full moons. This selective memory reinforces the false belief of a connection.

The other options refer to different psychological concepts. Confirmation bias entails favoring information that confirms existing beliefs, but it does not specifically address the false perception of correlation. Causal attribution refers to the process of explaining the causes of behavior, which implies a genuine relationship between events rather than an illusory one. Self-serving bias involves attributing positive outcomes to oneself and negative outcomes to external factors, which is also distinct from believing in a connection between unrelated events.